Market Commentary for Wednesday 27th February 2008

Dollar falls against all major after disappointing data.

US Consumer Confidence printed 75.0 against the forecast of a fall to 82.0, Which Triggered a rally In All the Majors.

With EUR/USD finally hits the elusive 1.5000 level, and AUD/USD back above 0.9300.

PPI m/m printed 1.0% above expectations of 0.4%, And Core PPI printed 0.4% above expectations of 0.2%.

A drop in Consumer Confidence, which indicates a Slow Growth in the Economy, together with Above expectations PPI which means a Higher Inflation sign, only complicates matter for FOMC in terms of their Interest Rate Decision Making.

Forget Recession, US Economy is entering a Stagflation Economy. It will be interesting to see what move FOMC will take. Will they ease The interest rate again to boost growth, like what most People are assuming right now. Or hold rates as it is to deter any possible rise in inflation?

EUR/USD Outlook

Data from Euro zone yesterday, is good with German IFO report above expectations, and Trichet's comments on Euro Zone interest rates help boost confidence back into EURO.
We are expecting German Consumer Confidence and Import Price Index today. While not usually important, considering the weakness in the dollar right now, any Large Deviation would probably trigger a move up for the EUR/USD.

Also Today with Durable Goods orders and New Home Sales Data coming out from the US and expected to print a lower number than previous month. A stronger Euro would be expected tonight.

As of Writing this report, EUR/USD has just fall below the elusive 1.5000 level, and would probably move lower during Asian Session as a correctional move to relief the overbought levels.
Technically EURO is Heavily Overbought, any move up today would have to be maintained by Fundamentals.

EUR/USD is currently in conflict technically and Fundamentally. Fundamental Bias is still to the upside, but technical wise, a correction has to occur, in order for Price to reclaim and maintain above the 1.5000 level.

Possibility of this happening during the US session is High provided a correctional move occurs during the Asian Session.

Resistance Levels

1.5049 -- February 26th Historical High

1.5103 -- R1 Daily

1.5210 -- R2 Daily

Support Levels

1.4940 -- Daily Pivot

1.4833 -- S1 Daily

1.4670 -- S2 Daily

Market Commentary for Tuesday 26th February 2008

Carry Trade Back in Play?

With JPY weakening since the past 2 weeks, Fear of US Recession does not seem to dampened the appetite for Carry Trade.

With AUD/JPY Leading the race.Our Favorite Comm dollar has been on a rampage the past month, This is mainly attributed to the High risk of Inflation The Australian Economy is facing.

A rate hike early next month is anticipated.

AUD/USD Outlook

Fundamental wise, Nothing New for The Australian Economy, a further rate hike is expected early next month.

Technically speaking, Daily Chart shows sign of Overbought. But in Time like this when Fundamentals overshadowed Technicals, Overbought level does not seem to be a concern. Although we should be a expecting a quick pullback before the Move up Continues. Most Viable Target This Week would be the November High of 0.9397.

Resistance Levels

0.9292 -- R2 Daily

0.9347 -- R2 Daily

0.9397 –- November 7th High/ Close to the 0.9400 Psychological Level.

Support Levels

0.9218 -- Daily Pivot

0.9187 -- S1 Daily

0.9138 -- S2 Daily

GBP/USD Outlook

With Recent Data from The UK Shows Sign of Recovery in the economy.
Yesterday's Mortgage approval data shows sign of recovery in the housing market which Crippled the UK Economy late last year. News of Northern Rock Takeover by The Government although questionable politically, is being considered to be alright for the market, at the very least Northern Rock is safe in the near future.Although The British Government has stated that it will only be temporary until further bid for privatization surfaces.

Technically Speaking, GBP/USD has broken out of the Downtrend Channel last Friday,

Rejected previous resistance trendline yesterday and would probably enter a Range Market this week, A Reversal is likely but not necessarily.

Further move up late today is possible, as Daily chart is not yet in overbought territory.

Resistance Levels

1.9713 -- R1 Daily

1.9759 -- R2 Daily

1.9812 –- R3 Daily

Support Levels

1.9660 -- Daily Pivot

1.9614 -- S1 Daily

1.9561 -- S2 Daily

Outlook for Wednesyday 13th Febrary 2008

GBP/USD Outlook

GBP/USD seems to be in the spotlight this week, with all the major UK data coming out this week.

We had PPI on Monday which printed 2.6% beating the expectation of 1% .

Then We had the CPI Data Yesterday, which printed below expectations at 2.2%, while Core CPI is very disappointing @1.3%.

RICS House Price Balance Fell further to -54.7% from the previous Survey at -49.1%

So What's in Store for the Cable today???

We have earnings and unemployment report out today but everyone will probably be waiting for the BOE Inflation Report. Despite all the ugly data out for UK, The BOE is hawkish in regards to inflation, we would probably be expecting a Hawkish Statement from BOE today. If i remembered correctly, Governor King mentioned last month that they seems to be in a dilemma in maintaining the inflation level and the slowdown in the economy. Inflation levels still need to be maintained all the while economic slowdown is happening in the UK.

BOE decision to cut rate last week is probably there, to go ahead of the curve to maintain the slowdown in the economy. Further Rate Cut will depend on the inflation report today.

My personal Thoughts on this would be a hawkish comment from the BOE and rate cuts won't be coming as quickly, A hold Next month is very likely.

Fundamental aside let's look at the Technicals for today.

Let's check the daily Chart. Down trend Channel mentioned in the previous reports still exists. Stochastic level coming out from the oversold level, probably due to the boost from monday's PPI data Triggered a move up, most probably a correction, for the Cable to test the Down Trendline, Possibilty of price hitting the area i labeled on the chart is there.
Overall Long term situation, as long as Price hasn't break out of the channel, Cable is still Bearish.


On the other hand H1 Shows a possible Bullish Divergence, all now depends on the Market reaction and Anticipation of the BOE Inflation Report, Things look Bullish for today, and Cable does need a correction pullback should it wish to continue the move Down.


But are we seeing the Bottom for Cable at 1.9380???

Resistance Levels

1.9673 -- R1 Daily
1.9740 -- R2 Daily
1.9865 -- R3 Daily

Support Levels

1.9556 -- Daily Pivot
1.9481 -- S1 Daily
1.9364 -- S2 Daily

Market Outlook for Monday 11th February 2008

Welcome to the start of a new week, hope all of you had a great weekend.

Lets Start With our Favorite Commdollar AUD/USD.

As I said on my previous Reports that The AUD/USD is still in an uptrend, slowly but surely.
Friday saw AUD/USD trading sideways for most of the day, but it might change soon with The RBA announcing Their Monetary Policy Tomorrow at 00:30 GMT ( 11:30 AEST ). More Tightening in the future is what we would probably hear from that statement.

But if you are trading this i would be careful, as The Australian Home loans data will be released at the same time as the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. Home Loans m/m is expected to drop from 4% to -0.9%. usually this data is not that crucial but with the recent housing problems in USA and UK, trader would probably take this data into consideration.
Overall in the Long run AUD is still to the upside but Its Probable that we might see a drop tomorrow, depending on how traders consider the home loans data.

Looking at the charts for AUD/USD there a two very obvious and strong resistance, AUD/USD would need to clear these two Resistances by This week to maintain The move up, otherwise market is likely to stall and trade Sideways.


Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 7th September High to 18th December low, Shows that the 61.8% Level and 50% Level has contained the AUD/USD from moving Up. I would Be extremely cautious around the 0.8974 Level as it has been tested 12 times since the fall from 0.9400.

Resistance Levels

0.8974 -- 50% Fib Retracement 7/11/2007 - 18/12/2007 Fall.
0.9074 -- 61.8% Fib Retracement 7/11/2007 - 18/12/2007 Fall.
0.9398 -- 7/11/2007 high.

Support Levels

0.8875 -- 38.2%
0.8751 -- 23.6%
0.8705 -- 200MA


EUR/USD Outlook

Euro is also trapped in a range bound market, G7 Meeting was held this weekend and ECB's Trichet has Taking a Neutral Stance on the current outlook for EZ Interest Rate Policy, Stimulus Package is also not necessary for Europe.

I always question myself recently with the problems in US and UK, is Trichet acting tough? or Euro Zone is TOUGH! Economically Europe is not in a bad shape, It is slowing and The risk of Growth slowdown in 2008 is there.but all these are current views collected from data.

Personally this really seems like what the Fed says a couple of months back and look at them now... Slashing Rates like this is closing time at the fish market.

Two Economic Data from Europe on Monday the French and Italian Industrial Production, and both of them are forecast to be better than December.
French IP is forecast to come in at 0.7% compared to -1.5% on December.
Italian IP 0.5% from -0.9%.
So fundamentally EURO might be heading up on Monday.

Technically speaking Daily Chart shows a range bound Market although Euro seems to be making Higher swing lows. You could look at my previous posts on Eur/Usd the daily Chart is still valid. I'll Be Doing EUR/USD on the H4 Today as i do want to make some points on why the probability of EUR/USD moving up is there on Monday.

*First Up, Stochastic are moving out of the oversold level.
*Secondly, EUR/USD has been making higher lows for the past 5 candles, which is always a good sign of a move up.
*Thirdly, Candle has closed above the 23.6% Fib Retracement from the fall last Thursday.
A close above the 23.6% Fib Level Usually means that 61.8% fib is a probable target.

A likely Scenario for EUR/USD is to test the 23.6% Fib Level During the Asian Session and then a rally to (Minimum) 61.8% Level @1.4569, during news release at 07:45 GMT(French IP) and 09:00 GMT (Italian IP). Good News Expectation coupled with a The comments by ECB's Trichet during the G7 Meeting will Most Probably Push EUR/USD up in the short term.

But If 50% Fib @1.4544 proves to be a tough contender and Euro failed to break above it. then we would probably see a correction to the downside as the Hourly is a little bit overbought.

Resistance Levels

1.4544 -- 50% Fib Retracement (R1 Daily is also around this area @1.4553)
1.4569 -- 61.8% Fib Retracement (R2 Daily is also around this area @1.4597)
1.4649 -- R3 Daily (100%fib Retracement is also there)

Support Levels

1.4601 -- Daily Pivot
1.4457 -- S1 Daily
1.4405 -- S2 Daily

Market Outlook for Friday 8th of February 2008

Well, From the Previous Market outlook, everything seems to go as predicted in that outlook.
No Major News Coming out on the 8th of January 2008.

Market went Out "GUNS BLAZING" yesterday after the interest rates statements from ECB and BOE, US Data came out lower but still better than previous month's drop. All This Weighing down on Cable and EUR/USD.

The Previous Charts i posted is still Valid for Friday, so a move to the downside for Both Cable and Euro is still probable. I'm Leaving that aside for now, and I'm Going to have a look at AUD/USD today.

To Be honest I'm Still Bias to the Upside for AUD/USD, I mean The Australian Economy is Doing Fantastic, Inflation is underway right now ( Actually Inflation is not a good thing ), which means that The RBA would probably Do A Rate Hike Again, possibly as soon as Next Month or before Q2 ends.

Growth Might have been slowed due to the Recent market turmoil, but I'm still Hoping for a parity in AUD/USD. Metals are in hot demands now, and Guess where most Metals come from? Australia of Course!!

I Do not see a reason why AUD cannot Reach Parity, so for now that will always be my Target. The only reason for AUD/USD not able to reach parity is if there is a Major Carry Trade Unwinding (i.e. Risk Aversions) that could affect AUD/JPY, but then again it would only be temporary.

Let's Look a the AUD/USD Daily Chart


A Bullish Divergence has formed on the Daily Chart, Price makes a lower low and Stochastic makes higher low.
Although Daily Stochs has just crossed down, indicating a probable move down these next few days. Prices are Also Above the 200 MA, indicating that the pair itself is still in an uptrend albeit a slower one.
So I would be waiting for a Bullish Hidden Divergence to form this time and see whether or not 200 MA will be able to support the pair. I'm not recommending Going against the trend so i would wait for further confirmations on the AUD/USD.

Remember that this is a Daily Chart so it would be a general Guidance to overall market movements for the days ahead. What happens inside a trading day is a tottally different story.

I would Also like to ask You Readers and Fellow Traders to give me some feedback, on whether or not i should be doing it with a daily Chart or maybe something smaller.

The reason why i went with Daily Chart is, you might be reading it at different times.
If i used a shorter time frame to do my analysis, which would be more accurate for trading, You might be reading it a different time and then it's not useful anymore.

Been A Great week and Good Luck in you trades ahead.

Gong Xi Fa Chai!!!

Gong Xi to fellow traders that might be celebrating the Lunar New Year.
Guess What?
First Day of The Year of The Rat is Brilliant, Everything just falls into place.

Went Short on GBP/USD a couple of minutes before the London open, Went out for family gatherings and come home to a profit of 90Pip. Shorted at 1.9610 and close it at 1.9520.

Reached home 45 minutes before the Interest rate Statement, Chilling out thinking hey, I've got my Pips today just relax and see what happens no rush.
BOE cut rate by 25bp, as expected, price went up a bit, and then A Reverse Hammer with tails like Haley.

I went in again a @1.9510 and fter projecting my Fibs and Target levels, set my TP @ 1.9420. Leave it went to bed and woke up to another 90 Pips.

So all in all, A FANTASTIC DAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. lets Hope It will be like this Everyday for the rest of the year.

So Thursday 7th of February, Shorted the Cable till kingdom come for a nice profit of 180 Pips.


The Yellow Fibs are those for my first trade and the Blue ones are for my second trade.

Market Outlook for Thursday 7th of February 2008

Enough with my rambling let's get to Business!!!

GBP/USD has been pricing in the rate cut tomorrow, since yesterday with market expecting a 25bp Cut Tomorrow by BOE.

Want to know why? The last meeting they had was a Hold with 8:1vote. Data after that is pretty bleak, retail drops, mortgage and consumer lending drops, housing prices drops... so you would probably figure out that there is a slowdown in household spending.

The Daily Chart for GBP/USD shows a valid downtrend channel that has been going on since Mid December.


As of Posting seems that there will be a lot of room for a move down in GBP/USD.
Look Closely, apart from being Contained by the Channel,
Stochastic has room to move and there is a Hidden bearish Divergence, Price makes lower high and the Oscillators made Higher High.

Resistance Levels
1.9744 - Weekly Pivot
1.9863 - R1 Weekly
1.9954 - 30th January 2008 high
2.0000 - Psychological Level

Support Levels
1.9532 - S1 Weekly
1.9413 - S2 weekly
1.9334 - 22nd January Low

Eur/USD

Similar to how GBP/USD is acting this week, EUR/USD is awaiting for The Rate Decision By ECB. Expectations are for ECB to hold the interest Rate at 4% although recent data reflect a slowdown in Growth, ECB's concern is not in slow growth of an economy but rather in containing the Inflation.

But Recent Market Turmoils have also affected EUR/USD with EUR/JPY Weighing it Down. As a result Daily Chart is beginning to reflect a range bound Market for the EUR/USD.

This is true as long as Price does not break Below 1.4365 Area. Since EUR/USD on the Daily Chart formed a Double top, prices are still expected to move down in the short term. Although We would probably see a pullback to the upside tomorrow, "IF" BOE does cut the interest Rate by 25bp and ECB holds the interest rate at 4%. A push up in EUR/GBP would probably Helped EUR/USD up for a little pullback, before testing 1.4365 area again.


Resistance Levels
1.4656 - S1 weekly
1.4806 - Weekly Pivot
1.4955 - 1st February 2008 High
1.5000 - Psychological Level

Support Levels
1.4511 - S2 Weekly
1.4361 - S3 Weekly and 22nd January 2008 Low

Two Major Pairs to look out for tomorrow and Good Luck with You Trade.

Err.. why FOMC did a Rate Cut Again???

Let's Review again what happened Yesterday. ISM non Manufacturing came out with disastrous results. Those Rally On DJIA late Last week, pretty cool huh. AND "BAM" all gone in one day. Risk Aversion is back in Full Swing resulting in Carry Trades Unwinding, Geez seriously why don't they just unwind the whole thing and start fresh???

Everyone Knows the problem is there to stay, fine a rate cut is helpful. But it's not going to help Immediately it takes time you know. Those Data are from before the Cut.

Well that aside Volatility is Back after a pretty boring start on Monday. Look at GBP/USD and EUR/USD. those are some fine moves there.

Equity Traders are cowering, afraid of uncertainty. But hey, we are in FOREX aren't we? does it matter? Ummm let me think....NOPE. We love it. it's finally Happening YAY. No more Range trading at least for GBP/USD. We Love Trends!!!!

I thought february is going to be boring... Guess i'm wrong there.

What the Hell is this Blog Again???

Well It's Finally happening i Succumb to Blogging :P

The Purpose of this blog would be a personal journal for myself on my trades and the random things in life.

As you would have probably figured out from the Blog title I'm an FX Trader and an Analyst at that and the occasional Instructing Jobs for people starting out their lonely Journey into the world of FOREX. I'm Not kidding Full time Trading is LONELY as Hell.

Don't believe me? here is an example. its 8.p.m your friends asked you out for the dinner and maybe some coffee after that, but wait a second you said and you skim through the Economic Data Schedule, AHA its Friday and Guess what its NFP day. so you said no to your friends......

Keep doing it for a month and see if any of your friends even bother calling you.
That's the sad sad reality. well they are your friends but then whats the point of wasting a phone call when they would have figured out your answer anyway.

Well all this would be true for me as I'm in Sydney Australia, imagine staying up all night just to trade the European and US Sessions which most FX traders do. If you are in the States or Europe things might be different......

Enough of the Ramblings From Tomorrow Onwards I will Be Recording the Journals of My trades here, and maybe some rambling of life as well T_T